Tracking a warm Tuesday before heavy rainfall arrives

A warm Tuesday is ahead across Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas, but the weather pattern will turn increasingly wet and unsettled tonight through Thursday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected during this time, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

Tuesday will be warm, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid-80s. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop, mainly across western portions of the area, but the bigger change arrives tonight as moisture increases and a strong low-level jet develops. Rain chances will increase significantly, especially across Northwest Missouri, where chances rise to 70–90% or higher.

The combination of abundant moisture and repeated rounds of rainfall will be the main concern through Thursday. Atmospheric moisture will be unusually high for this time of year, allowing showers and thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through late Thursday night for portions of Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas.

Rainfall totals from tonight through Thursday could reach 2–4+ inches along and north of the Highway 36 corridor, with 1–3 inches possible farther south. Locally higher amounts are possible where multiple rounds of heavy rain track over the same locations. The flooding threat is elevated because portions of Northern Missouri have already received 1–3 inches of rain over the weekend, leaving the ground wetter heading into this event.

Expect the rain and storm chances to continue Wednesday and Thursday as additional disturbances move across the Plains. Thursday night, a cold front will move through the region, bringing one final round of potentially heavy rain before conditions begin to improve.

Much cooler weather arrives Friday, with highs only in the mid-60s to lower 70s. A few leftover showers could linger, mainly across southern portions of the area, but high pressure will build in for the weekend, bringing drier and cooler conditions with highs generally in the mid-60s to mid-70s.

The main weather story over the next several days will be the transition from a warm Tuesday to several days of heavy rain and increasing flooding concerns, followed by a much cooler and drier pattern for the weekend.