An Ohio edge. An Iowa tossup. New CNN polls give Democrats hope in a pair of red states

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

(CNN) — Widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country has opened up a prime Senate pickup opportunity for Democrats in Ohio and made for a razor-thin contest in Iowa, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

President Donald Trump carried both states by double digits in 2024, and Republicans currently hold both US Senate seats and complete control of the state government in each of them.

But in these deep-red states, likely voters now mostly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, say his policies have increased the cost of living and that tariffs on foreign goods have largely been a negative for their states. About four in 10 in each state say they are financially worse off than they were two years ago.

Asked which party they’d like to see in control of the Senate after this year’s midterms, Iowa’s likely voters favor the Republicans (53% to 46%). In Ohio, it’s a more even divide (52% Democrats, 48% Republicans).

And in both states, Democrats have the upper hand in the race for governor.

Senate contests present opportunities for Democrats — and challenges

In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead among likely voters over Jon Husted, a Republican former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Brown is more widely known and better liked than Husted, according to the poll, and voters on both sides of the contest say their decision is more about Brown than it is about Husted. Nearly half of likely voters see Brown’s views and policies as about right ideologically, while 43% call him too liberal. Fewer are satisfied with Husted’s positions – 42% call his views and policies about right, 40% say he’s too conservative and 16% not conservative enough.

Among Brown’s own supporters, 62% say that choice is more a vote for Brown than against Husted, and likewise, Husted’s voters are more anti-Brown voters (56%) than pro-Husted voters (44%).

About 4 in 10 likely voters in Ohio say that which party controls the Senate will be more of a factor in their vote than the candidates’ experience and character or their positions on the issues. Voters motivated by that are split about evenly between Brown and Husted.

In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats need to hold their seats in battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia while flipping four seats currently held by Republicans. The party’s best pickup opportunity comes in North Carolina, but Ohio may be their next best shot. Iowa, one of several deeply red states at the heart of this year’s Senate playing field, is more of a stretch for Democrats.

The poll finds no clear leader in the Senate race in Iowa, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% to Democrat Josh Turek’s 43% among likely voters.

Almost 3 in 10 Iowa likely voters say they haven’t yet firmly decided whom to support, and sizable shares don’t yet have an opinion on each candidate. Turek is less well-known than Hinson, with 24% saying they have never heard of him or don’t have an opinion, while 18% say the same about her. Those with an opinion of Hinson break more negative than positive, while views of Turek are about evenly split.

In contrast with Ohio, most backers of both candidates in Iowa say their choices are motivated by support for their chosen candidate rather than by opposition to their opponent: 66% of Hinson supporters and 60% of Turek supporters say their choice is in support of their candidate.

There are some signs in the poll that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than does Ohio. In addition to likely voters’ preference for a GOP-controlled Senate, Trump’s approval rating here stands at 41% compared with 36% in Ohio and notably above his 34% average nationwide in the CNN Poll of Polls. And in assessing the candidates, more call Turek too liberal (46%) than say that Hinson is too conservative (38%).

Economic headwinds similar across states

In both Iowa and Ohio, about half of likely voters call the economy and cost of living their top issue, more than 20 points higher than the second most important issue, the state of US democracy.

The economic concerns that have buffeted Trump’s approval ratings nationally all year long are evident here. About three-quarters in each state say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living there, majorities say that increased tariffs on foreign goods are a bad thing for their state and roughly seven in 10 say they have faced at least some hardship from rising gas prices. Overall, far more say their own financial situation has worsened in the last two years than say it has gotten better.

About four in 10 in each state say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today. Those angry voters express more motivation to vote than do those who are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going in the country in both states.

Democrats with upper hand in governor races

In both states, Democrats lead in the race for governor among likely voters. Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa by 9 points, while in Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton tops Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 8 points. Both would be Democratic pickups if these margins were to hold.

Impressions of Ramaswamy and Lahn appear to be weighing down their candidacies, with the share of likely voters who hold unfavorable opinions of the two Republicans outpacing favorable views by double-digit margins. By comparison, nearly half of Iowa likely voters have a favorable view of Sand – compared to 32% unfavorable – while in Ohio views of Acton are more evenly split.

CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

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The CNN polls of Iowa and Ohio likely voters were conducted online and by phone September 29-October 5, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 801 likely voters in Iowa have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points; it is 4.5 points among the 760 likely voters in Ohio.