Tropical Storm Edouard strengthening as it closes in on landfall

By Meteorologists Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce

(CNN) — Tiny Tropical Storm Edouard is intensifying as it makes its final approach to the Texas-Louisiana border and could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall.

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Small systems are more prone to abrupt changes in intensity than larger ones, so forecasters at the National Hurricane Center warned early Tuesday morning that Edouard would “significantly strengthen” right before landfall. It did just that.

The storm’s compact size will also limit its impact. Flooding rainfall in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana is its most widespread threat, but only a small coastal section of these areas will experience the strongest wind gusts and storm surge.

Here’s the latest:

• Edouard’s sustained winds increased from 40 mph to 50 mph Tuesday morning. The storm is located about 40 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center. Edouard is moving west-northwest at 8 mph and should arrive at the coast by Tuesday afternoon.
• Rainbands are sweeping onshore across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through Tuesday morning as the storm’s center draws closer, with tropical storm-force winds also ramping up.
• A tropical storm warning stretches from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion-Iberia parish border in Louisiana. A hurricane watch also extends from High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, in case Edouard rapidly intensifies into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
• Texas Gov. Greg Abbott activated the state’s Emergency Operations Center to prepare for potential impacts. More than 1,500 response personnel have been mobilized, along with aircraft, swift water rescue boats and high water vehicles.

Latest forecast

Heavy rainfall is the storm’s biggest concern.

A Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall has been issued through Tuesday night from southeast Texas, including Houston, to southwest Louisiana. The Level 2 threat shifts north on Wednesday from Houston and College Station to just south of Dallas.

Torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be more than enough to cause flash flooding, especially on roads. Storm totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected from the upper Texas coast into east-central Texas, with up to 9 inches possible in isolated spots. Far southwestern Louisiana could receive 2 to 4 inches.

Edouard’s tropical storm-force winds extend only 25 miles from its center. That will limit the potential for power outages and downed trees to a very small area near where it crosses the coast in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

The storm could rapidly intensify and bring hurricane conditions to the hurricane watch area this afternoon. The risk of downed trees and power outages would increase for a small area where the storm’s center moves inland.

A storm surge warning is also in effect from High Island to the Vermilion-Cameron parish border. A life-threatening storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normally dry ground is possible there, with 1 to 3 feet possible farther east to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Edouard will die out over eastern Texas on Wednesday. The storm’s leftover moisture could fuel scattered storms in eastern Texas on Thursday, but the flood threat should end.

El Niño is bossing hurricane season

Another short-lived storm fits with what the 2026 Atlantic season has delivered so far due to a strengthening and potentially record-breaking El Niño.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s activity is running just 11% of average as of August 30, according to one measure.

The most recent storm, Dolly, fell apart in the open Atlantic on August 28 after lasting just 24 hours. Cristobal disintegrated just as quickly in the northern Atlantic on August 13. The other two storms, Arthur and Bertha, had brief shelf lives in the Gulf in June and July, respectively.

The Atlantic season’s first hurricane is nearly three weeks late compared to the average. It’s the longest the Atlantic has gone without a hurricane since 2022, when Danielle formed on September 2.

The Atlantic’s latest first hurricane happened on September 11, according to satellite-assisted records dating to 1966. Hurricanes Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013 hold a tie for that record.

September is the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season thanks to a combination of more favorable weather ingredients.

The most basic building block is warmer water temperatures, which peak in September after basking in summer’s heat, and provide fuel for storms to form and strengthen.

Lower wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, is the other big ingredient. Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can rip apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.

But this year’s El Niño has made wind shear unusually strong and widespread in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. That has stifled storm chances and ripped apart storms like Dolly.

It’s also the main reason forecasters have called for a muted season overall.

But that’s no reason to ignore the rest of hurricane season completely. Storms can still find windows of opportunity to form and become a threat, even in an overall subdued season.

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CNN’s Kate S. Petersen and Meteorologists Dakota Smith and Tyler Ory contributed to this report.