Lula defeats Trump ally Bolsonaro, keeping Brazil left as Latin America shifts right

By Alessandra Freitas, CNN

(CNN) — Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection Sunday, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump, in a razor-thin runoff election that capped a deeply polarized presidential race.

The historic victory makes the 80-year-old leftist leader the first Brazilian president to be elected to the office four times, after a campaign dominated by concerns over the cost of living, crime and corruption, as well as a broader rightward political shift in Brazil and across Latin America.

It also marks the first time since the return of direct presidential elections in 1989 that a candidate has won the presidency after finishing second in the first round. Lula finished more than 2 million votes behind Bolsonaro on Oct. 4, a result that initially gave momentum to his rival’s campaign.

Lula’s victory now represents a major setback for the Bolsonaro political movement, with Flávio failing to accomplish what his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, also couldn’t to do in 2022: defeat Lula at the ballot box.

The results came after a turbulent election day, with voting being extended by two hours following last-minute pleas from both candidates to electoral authorities.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted a request from Lula’s campaign, which asked for an extension citing “incidents” affecting buses that provide transportation to polling venues in several states. Bolsonaro’s campaign had also requested an extension in some areas, citing difficulties voters faced reaching polling stations because of heavy rain.

The extension caused confusion at polling stations across Brazil. The order came around 5 p.m. in Brasilia, just as polls were scheduled to be closing, and many stations had already shut down. Many voting locations remained closed. Zanin and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) later clarified that only polling stations that hadn’t been closed should remain open until 7 p.m. local time. The decision drew backlash from Bolsonaro’s campaign, with the campaign director calling the decision “shameful and untimely from a Supreme Court Justice.”

The outcome will have repercussions beyond Brazil, keeping Latin America’s largest country on a more independent foreign-policy path under Lula, who has emphasized Brazil’s sovereignty and closer ties with the Global South and China amid tensions with the US administration.

Before polls closed on Sunday, Trump said that he was “monitoring” Brazil’s presidential runoff. Although he declined to endorse either candidate, he previously praised Flávio’s first-round performance and described the election as “very important.”

Here’s what to know about the lead-up to Sunday’s high-stakes election:

A first-round upset for Lula

According to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, Bolsonaro secured 2.2 million votes more than Lula in the first round of voting. Neither candidate reached the majority needed to win outright, forcing both campaigns to compete for a shrinking pool of undecided voters while trying to mobilize their supporters in a country deeply divided over its political future.

The result exposed vulnerabilities in Lula’s reelection bid, from frustration over the cost of living and crime to difficulties mobilizing parts of his traditional base. It also showed that Jair Bolsonaro’s movement remained strong, even as the former president served a prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat.

The shift in the first round of the election reflected a broader electoral trend across Latin America, where several presidential elections since April 2025 — in Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru — have resulted in victories for right-wing or center-right candidates.

A July Datafolha survey found 44% of Brazilians leaning right or center-right in their political values, compared with 39% on the left or center-left, reversing the balance measured in 2022.

Despite this, leftist Lula prevailed in the second round.

Crime, the economy and last-minute shifts

Public safety emerged as one of the defining issues of the election. A September Quaest/Pax survey found that 28% of Brazilians saw violence as the country’s biggest problem, followed by corruption at 22% and the economy at 19%.

Bolsonaro promised to designate major criminal factions as terrorist groups, expand prisons and lower the age of criminal responsibility. “Those who think I’m radical on public security haven’t seen anything yet,” he said October 13, adding that even El Salvador’s infamous hardline approach under President Nayib Bukele was not enough.

Lula struggled to reconcile his party’s traditional positions with demands for tougher action. A widely circulated clip of him saying last year that drug traffickers were also victims of drug users reinforced what Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, called a “longstanding perception that the Brazilian left is soft on crime.” Lula later acknowledged that he had expressed himself poorly.

Lula faced criticism about the state of the economy and affordability. During his first two terms, a commodities boom helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty and into the middle class.

This time, many voters had said they felt little progress. Lula can point to low unemployment and easing inflation, but those indicators had not changed perceptions for households struggling with everyday prices.

Winter compared the dynamic to the 2024 US presidential election, when favorable statistics failed to overcome frustration with prices under President Joe Biden and then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Still, many voters have remained loyal to Lula because of the social gains made during his first two terms, while fearing that a Bolsonaro presidency could roll back social rights. Flávio sought to counter those concerns by distancing himself from some traditionally conservative positions.

Part of the shift to the right in Brazil is due to the association of the left with corruption, although scandals have shadowed both campaigns. During last Sunday’s debate, Lula challenged Bolsonaro to open his financial records and pressed him over his ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former head of the collapsed Banco Master, whose alleged connections to powerful figures have embroiled Brazil’s political and judicial establishment, including the Supreme Court. Flávio, meanwhile, accused Lula of corruption and raised allegations involving the president’s eldest son, known as Lulinha. Lula’s previous corruption convictions were annulled in 2021.

The corruption allegations are deepening political fatigue in Brazil, say experts. “It reinforces the disgust and apathy that Brazilians feel with their political system as a whole,” Winter told CNN.

Women and religion: two crucial divides

But if there was one key group the candidates needed to win over, both experts and campaigns agreed it was women.

Women account for nearly 53% of registered voters and had been more resistant to Bolsonaro-aligned candidates than men. An Oct. 15 Datafolha survey put Lula ahead among women by 49% to 40%, while Flávio led among men by 52% to 40%.

Malu Gatto, an associate professor of Latin American politics at University College London, said the gender gap widened after Jair Bolsonaro emerged in 2018, as men gravitated toward the right and women became more supportive of the Workers’ Party.

Both campaigns addressed violence against women, particularly femicide, after several brutal cases drew national attention. Brazil recorded 1,571 femicides in 2025, the highest number since the crime was defined in law in 2015, according to the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety.

According to Gatto, the right traditionally emphasizes tougher criminal penalties for aggressors, while the left places greater emphasis on protection and support for victims, including shelters and specialized services.

Evangelicals, a growing demographic in the predominately Catholic country, have also turned into an important voting bloc for the right. Datafolha found Bolsonaro leading among evangelicals by 62% to 29%, while Lula led among Catholics by 52% to 42%.

Beyond Brazil

Trump praised Flávio Bolsonaro’s electoral performance following the first round but stopped short of formally endorsing him, even as his administration’s tariffs on Brazil and pressure over Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution have strained relations with Lula.

The tensions surfaced again during last week’s TV debate. Lula accused the Bolsonaro family of aligning itself with US interests at Brazil’s expense, while Flávio rejected the charge and criticized Lula’s foreign policy.

A Bolsonaro victory could have brought Latin America’s largest economy closer to the US, particularly on security and organized crime, and strengthen a wave of conservative governments elected across the region. Lula has instead emphasized multilateralism, ties with the Global South and China — Brazil’s largest export market — and his resistance to Trump’s tariff measures as a defense of national sovereignty.

The narrow result could also test the country’s stability after Jair Bolsonaro’s attempts to overturn his 2022 defeat led to the January 8, 2023, attacks on government institutions. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing.

Lula has secured an unprecedented fourth term as Brazil’s president, but with a more conservative Congress and a razor-thin margin of victory, he faces governing a country that remains deeply divided.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.