April showers bring May flowers

March brought no shortage of weather whiplash to Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas when it comes to temperatures, with two daily record lows and six daily record highs in the books for St. Joseph. Not to mention an all-time record March high temperature, at 95 degrees on March 21. 

Local March precipitation was far less impressive; in fact, it was on the paltry side. St. Joseph received just over an inch of rainfall in total at Rosecrans Airport, about 50% of average. Half an inch of that rain came down during the final hours of March 31st. Over the past several weeks drought has intensified across parts of the Show Me state, especially far Northern Missouri. According to the latest drought monitor based on data from Tuesday, March 31, a swath of moderate drought has developed north of Highway 36, while the I-70 corridor is drought free.  

Some areas in need of rainfall have already had more luck with April showers. From the last night of March through the second day of April, between 1 and 3 inches of rain has fallen from St. Joseph to the Northland of Kansas City. Far Northwest Missouri has seen less beneficial rain, adding up to less than an inch in most cases as of Thursday evening. On the flip side, some locations south of Kansas City dealt with flash flooding this week, as a deluge of rain pummeled a handful of counties south of I-70 early Wednesday morning, then again late Wednesday night. 

While a stretch of dry weather is slated to return over the next several days, April could prove to be overall wetter than normal, at least to some extent both locally and regionally. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s extended monthly outlook, much of the Midwest and parts of the Central and Southern Plains are likely to receive above average precipitation in April. Regionally, nearly all of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois are included in the “wetter than average” forecast, along with eastern Kansas and Nebraska. 

The main driver behind the overall pattern shift will be the placement of two large ridges of high pressure. Over the next few weeks, a prominent ridge is expected to expand across the western U.S. along the Pacific Coast while another ridge develops in the southeastern U.S. along the Atlantic coast. Between these two features, slugs of moisture and waves of low pressure are forecast to bring ample opportunity for rainfall. For some, this could translate to an enhanced risk for flood events as the month unfolds, especially in parts of the Mississippi River Valley.  

Flood or no flood, April showers are sure to bring May flowers this year across much of the nation’s heartland.