“Surprise” severe weather, it can still happen

Parts of Kansas and Missouri have been hot-beds for severe weather this week, with a handful of tornadoes and instances of large hail and damaging winds. A multi-day set up for strong storms emerged across the region, a somewhat common scenario for this time of year that was fairly well forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

What’s less common is the unforeseen nature of Monday’s severe weather outbreak in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri, spawning 5 tornadoes along with hail and damaging winds on the southern flank of the Kansas City metro. 

Looking back at Monday’s set-up, the chance for thunderstorm development of any kind was very low due largely to a strong cap of warm air in the atmosphere known for keeping showers and thunderstorms from materializing. In the unlikely event that a rogue storm or two did break the cap, area meteorologists knew they could be strong. Even so, 12 to 24 hours prior to Monday evening, signals pointed to dry conditions and little to no precipitation. 

Perhaps the most surprising part of Monday’s freak severe weather event, is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook. This product is a benchmark used by meteorologists across the U.S. to assess and communicate a perceived threat for severe weather. The SPC convective outlook measures chances for hail, high winds, and tornadoes on a 1 to 5 scale - 1 being a low-end risk and 5 the highest possible threat. 

On Monday morning, SPC shaded eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a level 0 severe risk zone, meaning virtually no threat for severe thunderstorm activity of any kind. By Monday afternoon, meteorologists at NWS Topeka and Kansas City noted trends in some hi-res model guidance a few hours before supercell thunderstorms exploded. Once storms fired, NWS forecasters issued timely tornado warnings and rolled with the punches as did broadcast meteorologists who switched gears and alerted the public through the evening hours.

Following the storms, swaths of damage was left behind from 5 confirmed tornadoes, including two with EF-2 ratings striking Franklin and Miami counties in eastern Kansas. Despite lack of awareness in the hours leading up to the outbreak, timely tornado warnings, prepared citizens, and probably some luck contributed to zero fatalities, although a handful of injuries and extensive property damage did take place.

The main lesson from Monday’s surprise severe weather outbreak is not to live in fear, or doubt the storm prediction center, but to always remain weather aware as things can change quickly. Regardless of technological advances in forecasting, mother nature will always keep us on our toes.