Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms

By Ethan Cohen, Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — Election Day is still a month away, but more than 690,000 Americans have already voted across at least 29 states. There are signs emerging of the advantage Democrats have in motivating their voters – a trend that’s played out in polling all summer long.

In several states with key Senate or governor races this fall, Democrats make up a larger share of voters requesting ballots so far than they did at this point in 2024.

In Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it’s 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine it’s 57%, up from 53%. And according to data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 42% of ballot requests are from Democrats, up from 36% at this point two years ago.

It’s worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are now.

The uptick in the share of requests from Democrats would be in line with polling, special election results and primary turnout, all of which have indicated Democrats may be more motivated to vote this November.

On the other hand, it could just be further evidence of Republicans continuing to shift to preferring other forms of voting.

An important caveat: While the fact that a person has voted is generally public information, your ballot itself is secret, so this data can’t tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won. That won’t be known until states start reporting results after the polls close on November 3.

Early voting data also only shows one slice of voters: a slice that is typically older and less Republican than the electorate as a whole.

Early voters are skewing older

Voting patterns have shifted in the last several years as the country has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.

As mail voting has fallen from its 2020 highs, voters 65 and older have made up a larger share of people choosing to vote that way, going from 27% of mail voters in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN Exit Poll data.

That’s not unexpected. Mail voting can be a convenient option for older people who might have trouble getting to the polls. In many states where voters need an excuse to vote by mail, age itself can qualify as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot.

There are early signs that that trend is continuing this year.

In nearly every state for which there is comparable data, voters 65 and older make up a larger share of ballot requests this year than they did at this point in either 2022 or 2024.

A big Democratic advantage in Virginia

Perhaps the most positive signs for Democrats so far come from Virginia, which has reported both by far the most total votes of any state in CNN’s count and is the only state which has reported substantial numbers of both early in-person and mail votes.

While Virginia voters don’t register by party, there’s a clear relationship between how a locality voted in 2024 and its relative pace of early voting.

Cities and counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points are at 78% of their turnout from this time in 2024, while those that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points are at just 61%.

Partisan turnout, as measured by the share of voters who have only participated in one party’s primaries since 2022, also points to a considerable Democratic advantage in the early voting period relative to the same point in 2024.

While the turnout so far shows a clear advantage in Democratic motivation, Republican voters could close the gap as Election Day nears. It’s still early in the voting period – Virginians cast over 4.5 million votes in 2024 and over 3.4 million votes in 2025. The Senate race in Virginia is not expected to be competitive this year, and Republican voters may be more motivated in more highly contested races.

Still, two competitive House races in the state also suggest a move towards Democrats in terms of enthusiasm.

Democratic primary participants outnumber Republican primary participants by 15 points among votes cast so far in the 1st District and 18 points in the 2nd District. Both districts are battlegrounds currently represented by Republicans facing tough challengers: Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st and Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd.

At the same point in 2024, the partisan composition was relatively split in both districts, with Republican primary voters leading by about 3 points in the 1st District and Democratic primary voters leading by 2 points in the 2nd District.

Statewide, Democratic primary participants outpace Republicans by about 18 points, up from 8 points at the same point in 2024.

Early voting data has its limits

Data on pre-election voting is valuable but it does have limits.

Early vote data is compiled by CNN, the Associated Press, and the data firm Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.

The number of votes cast so far is a tiny fraction of the roughly 57 million pre-election votes cast in 2022 and an even smaller share of the roughly 112 million votes cast overall in that election but is expected to grow substantially over the next few weeks.

The data so far is also largely limited to mail ballots, as very few states have started significant early in-person voting. In recent years mail voters have been much more Democratic, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican leaning.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.