Tropical depression forms in the Gulf, forecast to strengthen into first hurricane of Atlantic season
The red circle shows where a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later this week.
By Meteorologists Chris Dolce, Mary Gilbert and Dakota Smith
(CNN) — Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the southwestern Gulf and is forecast to become a hurricane, potentially bringing significant flooding rain and strong winds to parts of the northern Gulf Coast and South late this week.
The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) soon and strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday. That will make Isaias the first hurricane of an Atlantic season squashed by El Niño.
Depression Nine has winds of 35 mph and is located about 630 miles southwest of the Louisiana coast.
The system will quickly track north, bringing with it flooding rain, powerful winds and storm surge, likely impacting areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. It’s expected to reach Category 2 strength as it heads toward the coast.
Exactly where the storm could track or how strong it will be when it approaches land are still not set in stone, but anyone along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend needs to monitor the forecast closely.
Forecast uncertainty
Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, primed to help fuel any system, but atmospheric conditions may limit the storm’s strength before moving ashore.
The current forecast shows the tropical depression strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.
Wind shear — changes in wind speed or direction at different levels of the atmosphere — is low in the southern Gulf, which will allow the system to thrive and reach this strength. Higher, storm-killing wind shear is in place closer to the Gulf Coast, which will weaken the system as it makes its approach.
But the system is also forecast to move quickly, so its exposure to the higher wind shear may be limited. If the storm were to move slower, it could weaken quickly as it meanders in hostile conditions.
No matter its final fate, heavy rain is a concern on the Gulf Coast and in other parts of the South by late this week.
As this year has already shown, it doesn’t take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world that’s making tropical systems wetter.
Tropical storms Arthur and Edouard didn’t last long, but their heavy rain resulted in significant flash flooding and water rescues. Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi took the brunt of Arthur’s flooding while Edouard dropped over 20 inches of rain in eastern Texas.
Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Louisiana and Mississippi are most at risk of heavy rain from this system. The downpours could start to ramp up along the coast as soon as Friday and then continue to soak the region while creeping farther inland through the weekend.
Several inches of rain could fall, but it’s too soon to pinpoint which locations might see the most and could experience flash flooding.
Pinning down the location and severity of any storm surge flooding, strong winds and tornadoes along the northern Gulf Coast is even more difficult this far out in time because we need to know how strong the storm will be and exactly where it will track. The earliest those impacts could arrive is late Friday or Saturday.
What’s typical in October and November
Four named storms — that’s tropical storm strength or greater — typically form in October and November, but some hurricane seasons can have a stronger finish while others quiet down.
The last few years illustrate this year-to-year ebb and flow. Seven storms formed during October and November in 2024, but just two formed during the same time in 2023.
Late-season storms tend to form closer to the United States, including in the Gulf, Caribbean and off the Southeast coast, which makes them more likely to impact land.
While there are usually fewer storms, they can still be destructive.
Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica in October’s final week.
Hurricane Michael roared into the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018, becoming the latest landfalling Category 5 on record in the US. And Hurricane Sandy may be the most notorious of all: It morphed into a hybrid superstorm in late-October 2012 and walloped the East Coast.
Super El Niño’s grip on the Atlantic basin means a repeat of notorious late-season hurricanes is less likely this year. Its storm-killing wind is the main reason this season could go hurricane-free for the first time in reliable records.
The-CNN-Wire
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