Tropical Storm Isaias to threaten Gulf Coast as a dangerous hurricane

By Meteorologists Dakota Smith, Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce, CNN

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Isaias is primed to rapidly strengthen into a dangerous hurricane en route to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast by the weekend.

Isaias has sustained winds of 50 mph and is over 500 miles south-southwest of far southeast Louisiana. The storm is expected to push east above Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and then turn sharply toward the northern Gulf Coast as it rapidly intensifies into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane.

Rapid intensification is when a storm’s sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less, a feat more hurricanes are pulling off as Earth and its oceans warm from fossil fuel pollution.

Isaias could peak as a Category 2 with 110 mph winds by early Friday. It will weaken a little before making landfall as a dangerous hurricane by Friday night or early Saturday morning.

The storm’s forecast track has narrowed to a landfall somewhere from the Mississippi coast to the western Florida Panhandle, but how strong it will be when it arrives is still not set in stone. A hurricane watch for possible 74 mph or stronger winds is now in effect for this region.

Flooding rain, powerful winds and storm surge will arrive at the coast beginning Friday, and those impacts could stretch well outside the forecast path shown above, especially to the east.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties Tuesday, urging residents to prepare disaster plans and stock hurricane supply kits. State emergency teams are staging generators, fuel, food, water and flood barriers in the Tallahassee and Santa Rosa areas to support the response.

Oil companies are also taking precautions in the Gulf. Shell is evacuating nonessential personnel from six offshore platforms, while BP is removing nonessential workers and securing its offshore facilities, the companies said Tuesday.

Forecast timing and threats

Isaias should become increasingly lopsided when it arrives on the northern Gulf Coast. That means its worst wind, heavy rain, storm surge and tornado threats will be along and to the east of where its center tracks.

Rain, breezy winds and coastal flooding will start to ramp up as soon as Friday morning at the coast. Those conditions will worsen through the day and into the evening. Peak impacts will arrive when it makes landfall and last into Saturday morning.

Here’s what we know about the storm’s threats right now:

Flooding rain

Three to 6 inches of rain is expected, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Up to 5 inches of rain could fall in other parts of the Southeast as far north and east as the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley through Saturday.

The storm will move quickly, which will help keep flooding from being too widespread, but significant impacts are possible in limited areas. Isaias’ heaviest rain will lash southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, upping the flash flood threat there.

Storm surge

Powerful winds from Isaias will build up Gulf water and propel it toward the coast, pushing it onshore in what’s called storm surge.

Coastal flooding could start as soon as Friday morning, but the biggest push of dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will be near and just east of where the storm’s center makes landfall on Friday night.

Locations on the coast from eastern Mississippi to Alabama, including Mobile Bay and the western Florida Panhandle, could see 5 to 7 feet of inundation above normally dry ground if the peak surge happens at high tide. This could flood roads and damage structures near the coast.

Wind

Isaias will grow larger as it nears the coast, which means windy conditions could be felt across a wide area of the South, especially Friday night through Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds — 39 mph or greater — could arrive on the coast by midday Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible near and just inland from where the center makes landfall by late Friday.

The wind could down trees and knock out power both at the coast and over 100 miles inland in parts of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi.

Tornadoes

Isaias could produce a least a few twisters on it eastern side.

Tornado potential starts to ramp up on Friday night along the immediate coast. Tornadoes could spin up as far north as central Alabama on Saturday, although the risk area could shift or expand depending on the storm’s track.

Tropical tornadoes tend to be short-lived and sometimes pop-up with little notice.

Conditions will improve over most of the South on Saturday night or Sunday as leftover rain from Isaias races toward the East Coast.

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