El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?
By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN
(CNN) — The Atlantic Ocean has failed to produce a hurricane in the month of September for the first time in more than 30 years, the latest feat by a super El Niño widely predicted to become the strongest ever.
Only three other Septembers have gone hurricane-free in the Atlantic in records dating back to 1950. It last happened in 1994, and before that in 1972 and 1962, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University.
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Three tropical storms did form last month, so the Atlantic wasn’t completely closed for business. Of those, Tropical Storm Fay was closest to hurricane intensity. Its winds fell short by 4 mph, but there’s a chance Fay gets upgraded in the National Hurricane Center’s final review.
The numbers have been stark. The average for a season is seven hurricanes, and we should have seen five of them by now. Last year was below average, with five hurricanes — but four had already shown up by the start of October, three of which came in September.
September is usually prime time for hurricanes because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. About two to three hurricanes develop in the month on average.
This El Niño-stifled season had already blown past the most reliable record for the longest wait for the first hurricane to materialize, and the lack of any as October begins sets the stage for an even rarer possibility: an entire Atlantic season without hurricanes.
El Niño’s thumbprint is all over the tropics
Water temperatures have been warm enough for Atlantic hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, is the biggest reason the season has been squashed.
Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can shred apart anything from budding tropical systems to full-blown hurricanes.
The shear has been record-strong since this summer across parts of the Atlantic’s so-called main development region, which extends from Africa through the Caribbean, according to Klotzbach. As the name suggests, this is where many storms get their start at the height of the season — mid-August to early October — but this year it’s been nearly shutdown.
Tropical storms Dolly and Gonzalo are the only systems that have formed in this part of the ocean so far, and a wall of wind shear ripped both of them apart. Dolly lasted one day; Gonzalo almost made it two.
Meanwhile, El Niño’s extremely warm water has turned hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific hyperactive. A total of 20 named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — have roamed those ocean basins.
Hurricane Polo’s extreme rapid intensification to a Category 5 with 180 mph winds off the coast of Mexico last week tied it as the third strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record.
And Hawaii is enduring hurricane fatigue after Lala, Lowell and Nolo all swiped by the island chain with heavy rain and strong winds.
Year without a hurricane?
There have been just two years without an Atlantic hurricane: 1914 and 1907. But both come with an asterisk since they were before satellites and aircraft started tracking hurricanes more accurately, so one could have been missed.
In more modern records — since 1950 — there hasn’t been a single Atlantic season without a hurricane. The 1982 and 2013 seasons saw the fewest, with just two.
There are still two months to go, and October averages about one hurricane formation each year; occasionally November can spin one up, too. But the deeper we head into the month, the greater the odds the season could end without one.
Late-season storms tend to form closer to the United States, including in the Gulf, Caribbean and off the Southeast coast, which gives them greater odds to impact land. The Caribbean is fully entrenched in El Niño’s shear, so it’s likely off the table as a development area the rest of the way.
But as this year has shown, it doesn’t take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world that’s making tropical systems wetter.
Tropical storms Arthur and Edouard didn’t last long, but heavy rain from both resulted in significant flash flooding and water rescues near the Gulf Coast.
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