Tracking a windy & stormy Monday

A windy and unsettled start to the week is ahead for northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns.

Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with gusty southerly winds and periods of rain throughout the day. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph. Scattered showers and storms could develop as early as late morning, with stronger storms possible during the late afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.

Portions of northeast Kansas and northeast Missouri are under a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for severe weather. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, along with a few possible tornadoes, including tornadoes embedded within a line of storms. The main timeframe for stronger storms is 2 PM–11 PM, although storms could linger overnight, especially across northwest Missouri.

Rain and cloud cover throughout the day could limit atmospheric instability and reduce the severe threat. However, breaks in the clouds could allow temperatures to warm and conditions to become more favorable for stronger storms. Strong wind shear will remain a concern.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, especially late morning into early afternoon. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, but the overall severe threat appears lower. Temperatures will gradually cool, with highs in the 60s.

The active weather pattern moves out by Wednesday, bringing a quieter stretch with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will generally reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s. These seasonable temperatures will continue through Friday and into the weekend. Saturday could bring a few isolated showers, while Sunday currently looks mostly dry.

Looking ahead, another system could bring colder air and a potential wintry precipitation threat around November 8–9. Confidence remains low, and it is too early to determine specific impacts.