Local fall foliage approaching early November peak

Between late summer heat waves and largely warmer than normal October temperatures, conditions have been less than ideal for local fall color to truly flourish this year. Despite the odds, certain deciduous tree species across the Mid-Missouri River Valley have managed to turn shades of yellow, orange and red over the past few weeks. Other trees have had less luck with the color change, either shedding prematurely or simply fading into shades of pale green and brown. 

With ground observations, satellite derived data and fall foliage models, the timing of color changes can be estimated now better than ever. Modern day color change maps and models use a combination of temperature, precipitation, and sunlight data to get an idea of how colors have evolved over a region and when they will most likely peak.

As of October's final week, many deciduous hardwoods in Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas are approaching peak color change. According to latest forecasts, peak fall foliage is expected to last into the first week of November. On average, fall colors typically start showing a few weeks earlier in this part of the country, making the arrival of this year’s hues a little later than normal.

Unseasonably warm October weather is the main reason for this year’s delayed color change. High temperatures in St. Joseph has been several degrees above average for at least 20 days so far this month. The mercury reached 80 degrees or higher for 14 of those days. Overnight lows have also been warmer than normal in recent weeks. 

October 16th and 17th were exceptions to the overall warm pattern, when a decent cold front brought overnight lows well into the 30s marking the first freeze of the season. Luckily, temperatures didn't fall far below 32 degrees, allowing at least some foliage to remain intact as colors began to emerge.